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Castro vs Gimnástica Torrelavega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Castro
Castro
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnástica Torrelavega
Gimnástica Torrelavega
11/14/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Campo Riomar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Castro31%
×Draw27%
Gimnástica Torrelavega42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castro
1.10
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.34

Gimnástica Torrelavega creates 22% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 59 away

creates per match

Castro
1.44
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.68

allows per match

Castro
1.01
Gimnástica Torrelavega
0.76

finishing

Castro+0.00on par
Gimnástica Torrelavega+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castro ↓

Gimnástica Torrelavega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Castro or draw
58%
Castro or Gimnástica Torrelavega
73%
Draw or Gimnástica Torrelavega
69%

Winning margin

Castro wins by 2+
12%
Gimnástica Torrelavega wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Castro 1+ goals
67%
Castro 2+ goals
30%
Castro 3+ goals
10%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 1+ goals
74%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 2+ goals
39%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Castro (draw refunded)
42%
Gimnástica Torrelavega (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castro at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Gimnástica Torrelavega away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castro attack 1.44 + Gimnástica Torrelavega defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.10

Gimnástica Torrelavega attack 1.68 + Castro defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Castro scores more
31%
level
27%
Gimnástica Torrelavega scores more
42%

Gimnástica Torrelavega at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gimnástica Torrelavega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Castro 0 – 0 Gimnástica Torrelavega

Castro and Gimnástica Torrelavega drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Riomar in Castro Urdiales.