Castro 2–2 Barreda: Result & Stats

Castro

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Barreda

5/10/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Campo Riomar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Castro53%

×Draw24%

Barreda23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastroExpected goals in this matchBarreda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.00

Castro

1.67

Barreda

1.00

Castro creates 67% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 61 away

1.44

creates per match

1.00

1.01

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Castro

1.44

Barreda

1.00

allows per match

Castro

1.01

Barreda

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castro+0.00on par

Barreda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castro ↓

Barreda →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Castro or draw

77%

Castro or Barreda

76%

Draw or Barreda

47%

Winning margin

Castro wins by 2+

29%

Barreda wins by 2+

Team goals

Castro 1+ goals

81%

Castro 2+ goals

50%

Castro 3+ goals

23%

Barreda 1+ goals

63%

Barreda 2+ goals

26%

Barreda 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Castro (draw refunded)

70%

Barreda (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castro at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Barreda away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castro attack 1.44 + Barreda defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Barreda attack 1.00 + Castro defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Castro scores more

53%

level

24%

Barreda scores more

23%

Castro at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff