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Castrense vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Taça de Portugal 2018

Castrense
Castrense
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosaadvanced
9/20/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 128Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Castrense16%
×Draw26%
Lusitânia Lourosa58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castrense
0.65
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 131% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Castrense
0.50
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.00

allows per match

Castrense
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.80

finishing

Castrense+0.00on par
Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castrense ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–213%
0–37%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Castrense or draw
42%
Castrense or Lusitânia Lourosa
74%
Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa
84%

Winning margin

Castrense wins by 2+
4%
Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Castrense 1+ goals
48%
Castrense 2+ goals
14%
Castrense 3+ goals
3%
Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
78%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
44%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Castrense (draw refunded)
22%
Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castrense at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castrense attack 0.50 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.65

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.00 + Castrense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Castrense scores more
16%
level
26%
Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
58%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Castrense 0–5 Lusitânia Lourosa

Lusitânia Lourosa beat Castrense 5-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril in Penafiel.