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Častkovce vs Vrakuňa — 3. liga - West 2020

Častkovce
Častkovce
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Vrakuňa
Vrakuňa
11/5/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 14Futbalový štadión Častkovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Častkovce77%
×Draw13%
Vrakuňa10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Častkovce
3.09
Vrakuňa
1.05

Častkovce creates 194% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Častkovce
1.85
Vrakuňa
0.73

allows per match

Častkovce
1.38
Vrakuňa
4.33

finishing

Častkovce+0.00on par
Vrakuňa+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Častkovce ↓

Vrakuňa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Častkovce or draw
90%
Častkovce or Vrakuňa
87%
Draw or Vrakuňa
23%

Winning margin

Častkovce wins by 2+
58%
Vrakuňa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Častkovce 1+ goals
95%
Častkovce 2+ goals
81%
Častkovce 3+ goals
58%
Vrakuňa 1+ goals
65%
Vrakuňa 2+ goals
28%
Vrakuňa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Častkovce (draw refunded)
89%
Vrakuňa (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Častkovce at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 85 matches

Vrakuňa away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Častkovce attack 1.85 + Vrakuňa defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.09

Vrakuňa attack 0.73 + Častkovce defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Častkovce scores more
77%
level
13%
Vrakuňa scores more
10%

Častkovce at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Častkovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Častkovce vs Vrakuňa

Častkovce beat Vrakuňa 6-1 in 3. liga - West on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Častkovce in Častkovce.