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Častkovce vs Tatran Krásno — 3. liga - West 2020

Častkovce
Častkovce
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
3/22/20253. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 21Futbalový štadión Častkovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Častkovce59%
×Draw21%
Tatran Krásno20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Častkovce
2.02
Tatran Krásno
1.09

Častkovce creates 85% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 16 away

creates per match

Častkovce
1.85
Tatran Krásno
0.81

allows per match

Častkovce
1.38
Tatran Krásno
2.19

finishing

Častkovce+0.00on par
Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Častkovce ↓

Tatran Krásno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Častkovce or draw
80%
Častkovce or Tatran Krásno
79%
Draw or Tatran Krásno
41%

Winning margin

Častkovce wins by 2+
35%
Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Častkovce 1+ goals
87%
Častkovce 2+ goals
60%
Častkovce 3+ goals
33%
Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
66%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
30%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Častkovce (draw refunded)
75%
Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Častkovce at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 85 matches

Tatran Krásno away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Častkovce attack 1.85 + Tatran Krásno defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.02

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Častkovce defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Častkovce scores more
59%
level
21%
Tatran Krásno scores more
20%

Častkovce at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Častkovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Častkovce vs Tatran Krásno

Častkovce beat Tatran Krásno 2-1 in 3. liga - West on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Častkovce in Častkovce.