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Častkovce vs Nitra II — 3. liga - West 2020

Častkovce
Častkovce
CANC
13:30
Nitra II
Nitra II
4/4/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 19Futbalový štadión Častkovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Častkovce60%
×Draw20%
Nitra II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Častkovce
2.14
Nitra II
1.12

Častkovce creates 91% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 7 away

creates per match

Častkovce
1.85
Nitra II
0.86

allows per match

Častkovce
1.38
Nitra II
2.43

finishing

Častkovce+0.00on par
Nitra II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Častkovce ↓

Nitra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Častkovce or draw
81%
Častkovce or Nitra II
80%
Draw or Nitra II
40%

Winning margin

Častkovce wins by 2+
37%
Nitra II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Častkovce 1+ goals
88%
Častkovce 2+ goals
63%
Častkovce 3+ goals
36%
Nitra II 1+ goals
67%
Nitra II 2+ goals
31%
Nitra II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Častkovce (draw refunded)
76%
Nitra II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Častkovce at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 85 matches

Nitra II away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Častkovce attack 1.85 + Nitra II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.14

Nitra II attack 0.86 + Častkovce defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Častkovce scores more
60%
level
20%
Nitra II scores more
19%

Častkovce at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Častkovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Častkovce face Nitra II (3. liga - West)

3. liga - West returns with Častkovce hosting Nitra II. Match starts April 4, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Častkovce host Nitra II at Futbalový štadión Častkovce.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.