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Častkovce vs Fomat Martin — 3. liga - West 2020

Častkovce
Častkovce
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
11/4/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 14Futbalový štadión Častkovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Častkovce47%
×Draw23%
Fomat Martin29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Častkovce
1.75
Fomat Martin
1.33

Častkovce creates 32% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 46 away

creates per match

Častkovce
1.85
Fomat Martin
1.28

allows per match

Častkovce
1.38
Fomat Martin
1.65

finishing

Častkovce+0.00on par
Fomat Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Častkovce ↓

Fomat Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Častkovce or draw
71%
Častkovce or Fomat Martin
77%
Draw or Fomat Martin
53%

Winning margin

Častkovce wins by 2+
25%
Fomat Martin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Častkovce 1+ goals
83%
Častkovce 2+ goals
52%
Častkovce 3+ goals
25%
Fomat Martin 1+ goals
74%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
38%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Častkovce (draw refunded)
62%
Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Častkovce at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 85 matches

Fomat Martin away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.65 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Častkovce attack 1.85 + Fomat Martin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fomat Martin attack 1.28 + Častkovce defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Častkovce scores more
47%
level
23%
Fomat Martin scores more
29%

Častkovce at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Častkovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Častkovce vs Fomat Martin

Častkovce beat Fomat Martin 1-0 in 3. liga - West on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Častkovce in Častkovce.