Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Castilleja vs Gerena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Castilleja
Castilleja
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gerena
Gerena
10/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2Estadio Municipal Antonio Almendro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Castilleja33%
×Draw28%
Gerena39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castilleja
1.11
Gerena
1.22

Gerena creates 10% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 76 away

creates per match

Castilleja
0.97
Gerena
1.11

allows per match

Castilleja
1.32
Gerena
1.26

finishing

Castilleja+0.00on par
Gerena+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castilleja ↓

Gerena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Castilleja or draw
61%
Castilleja or Gerena
72%
Draw or Gerena
67%

Winning margin

Castilleja wins by 2+
13%
Gerena wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Castilleja 1+ goals
67%
Castilleja 2+ goals
30%
Castilleja 3+ goals
10%
Gerena 1+ goals
70%
Gerena 2+ goals
34%
Gerena 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Castilleja (draw refunded)
46%
Gerena (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castilleja at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Gerena away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castilleja attack 0.97 + Gerena defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Gerena attack 1.11 + Castilleja defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Castilleja scores more
33%
level
28%
Gerena scores more
39%

Gerena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gerena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Castilleja 2–0 Gerena

Castilleja beat Gerena 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Antonio Almendro in Castilleja de la Cuesta.