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Castilleja vs Ceuta II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Castilleja
Castilleja
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ceuta II
Ceuta II
1/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 16Estadio Municipal Antonio Almendro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Castilleja39%
×Draw29%
Ceuta II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castilleja
1.19
Ceuta II
1.07

Castilleja creates 11% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 82 away

creates per match

Castilleja
0.97
Ceuta II
0.82

allows per match

Castilleja
1.32
Ceuta II
1.40

finishing

Castilleja+0.00on par
Ceuta II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castilleja ↓

Ceuta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Castilleja or draw
67%
Castilleja or Ceuta II
71%
Draw or Ceuta II
61%

Winning margin

Castilleja wins by 2+
16%
Ceuta II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Castilleja 1+ goals
70%
Castilleja 2+ goals
33%
Castilleja 3+ goals
12%
Ceuta II 1+ goals
66%
Ceuta II 2+ goals
29%
Ceuta II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Castilleja (draw refunded)
54%
Ceuta II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castilleja at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Ceuta II away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castilleja attack 0.97 + Ceuta II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ceuta II attack 0.82 + Castilleja defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Castilleja scores more
39%
level
29%
Ceuta II scores more
33%

Castilleja at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Castilleja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castilleja vs Ceuta II

Castilleja beat Ceuta II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 3, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Antonio Almendro in Castilleja de la Cuesta.