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Castellonense vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Castellonense
Castellonense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 32Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Castellonense40%
×Draw27%
Villarreal III33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellonense
1.35
Villarreal III
1.20

Castellonense creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 112 away

creates per match

Castellonense
1.47
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

Castellonense
1.02
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

Castellonense+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellonense ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Castellonense or draw
67%
Castellonense or Villarreal III
73%
Draw or Villarreal III
60%

Winning margin

Castellonense wins by 2+
18%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Castellonense 1+ goals
74%
Castellonense 2+ goals
39%
Castellonense 3+ goals
15%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
70%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
34%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Castellonense (draw refunded)
55%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellonense at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellonense attack 1.47 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Castellonense defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Castellonense scores more
40%
level
27%
Villarreal III scores more
33%

Castellonense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Castellonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Castellonense 1–0 Villarreal III

Castellonense beat Villarreal III 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet in Castelló.