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Castellonense vs Rayo Ibense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Castellonense
Castellonense
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Rayo Ibense
Rayo Ibense
11/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 11Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Castellonense56%
×Draw25%
Rayo Ibense19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellonense
1.60
Rayo Ibense
0.82

Castellonense creates 95% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 49 away

creates per match

Castellonense
1.47
Rayo Ibense
0.63

allows per match

Castellonense
1.02
Rayo Ibense
1.73

finishing

Castellonense+0.00on par
Rayo Ibense+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellonense ↓

Rayo Ibense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Castellonense or draw
81%
Castellonense or Rayo Ibense
75%
Draw or Rayo Ibense
44%

Winning margin

Castellonense wins by 2+
30%
Rayo Ibense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Castellonense 1+ goals
80%
Castellonense 2+ goals
47%
Castellonense 3+ goals
22%
Rayo Ibense 1+ goals
56%
Rayo Ibense 2+ goals
20%
Rayo Ibense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Castellonense (draw refunded)
74%
Rayo Ibense (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellonense at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

Rayo Ibense away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellonense attack 1.47 + Rayo Ibense defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.60

Rayo Ibense attack 0.63 + Castellonense defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Castellonense scores more
56%
level
25%
Rayo Ibense scores more
19%

Castellonense at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Castellonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castellonense vs Rayo Ibense

Rayo Ibense beat Castellonense 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet in Castelló.