Castellonense 2–3 Ontinyent 1931: Result & Stats

Castellonense

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Ontinyent 1931

4/18/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 31Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Castellonense44%

×Draw28%

Ontinyent 193128%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellonenseExpected goals in this matchOntinyent 1931

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.00

Castellonense

1.34

Ontinyent 1931

1.00

Castellonense creates 34% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

1.47

creates per match

0.98

1.02

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Castellonense

1.47

Ontinyent 1931

0.98

allows per match

Castellonense

1.02

Ontinyent 1931

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellonense+0.00on par

Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellonense ↓

Ontinyent 1931 →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Castellonense or draw

72%

Castellonense or Ontinyent 1931

72%

Draw or Ontinyent 1931

56%

Winning margin

Castellonense wins by 2+

21%

Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Castellonense 1+ goals

74%

Castellonense 2+ goals

39%

Castellonense 3+ goals

15%

Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals

63%

Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals

26%

Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Castellonense (draw refunded)

61%

Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castellonense at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

Ontinyent 1931 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castellonense attack 1.47 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Ontinyent 1931 attack 0.98 + Castellonense defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Castellonense scores more

44%

level

28%

Ontinyent 1931 scores more

28%

Castellonense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Castellonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff