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Castellonense vs Elche II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Castellonense
Castellonense
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Elche II
Elche II
2/18/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 21Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Castellonense39%
×Draw28%
Elche II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellonense
1.24
Elche II
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 77 away

creates per match

Castellonense
1.47
Elche II
1.25

allows per match

Castellonense
1.02
Elche II
1.01

finishing

Castellonense+0.00on par
Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellonense ↓

Elche II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Castellonense or draw
66%
Castellonense or Elche II
72%
Draw or Elche II
61%

Winning margin

Castellonense wins by 2+
17%
Elche II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Castellonense 1+ goals
71%
Castellonense 2+ goals
35%
Castellonense 3+ goals
13%
Elche II 1+ goals
68%
Elche II 2+ goals
32%
Elche II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Castellonense (draw refunded)
53%
Elche II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellonense at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellonense attack 1.47 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.24

Elche II attack 1.25 + Castellonense defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Castellonense scores more
39%
level
28%
Elche II scores more
34%

Castellonense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Castellonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Castellonense 3 – 0 Elche II

Castellonense beat Elche II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet in Castelló.