Castellonense 3–0 Castellón II: Result & Stats

Castellonense

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Castellón II

3/29/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 27Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Castellonense46%

×Draw26%

Castellón II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellonenseExpected goals in this matchCastellón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.12

Castellonense

1.50

Castellón II

1.12

Castellonense creates 34% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

1.47

creates per match

1.22

1.02

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Castellonense

1.47

Castellón II

1.22

allows per match

Castellonense

1.02

Castellón II

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellonense+0.00on par

Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellonense ↓

Castellón II →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Castellonense or draw

72%

Castellonense or Castellón II

74%

Draw or Castellón II

54%

Winning margin

Castellonense wins by 2+

23%

Castellón II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Castellonense 1+ goals

78%

Castellonense 2+ goals

44%

Castellonense 3+ goals

19%

Castellón II 1+ goals

67%

Castellón II 2+ goals

31%

Castellón II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Castellonense (draw refunded)

62%

Castellón II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castellonense at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castellonense attack 1.47 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Castellonense defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Castellonense scores more

46%

level

26%

Castellón II scores more

28%

Castellonense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Castellonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff