Castellonense 4–1 Alzira: Result & Stats

Castellonense

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Alzira

2/22/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 23Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Castellonense43%

×Draw28%

Alzira29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellonenseExpected goals in this matchAlzira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.02

Castellonense

1.32

Alzira

1.02

Castellonense creates 29% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 45 away

1.47

creates per match

1.02

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Castellonense

1.47

Alzira

1.02

allows per match

Castellonense

1.02

Alzira

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellonense+0.00on par

Alzira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellonense ↓

Alzira →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Castellonense or draw

71%

Castellonense or Alzira

72%

Draw or Alzira

57%

Winning margin

Castellonense wins by 2+

20%

Alzira wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Castellonense 1+ goals

73%

Castellonense 2+ goals

38%

Castellonense 3+ goals

15%

Alzira 1+ goals

64%

Alzira 2+ goals

27%

Alzira 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Castellonense (draw refunded)

60%

Alzira (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castellonense at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

Alzira away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castellonense attack 1.47 + Alzira defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Alzira attack 1.02 + Castellonense defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Castellonense scores more

43%

level

28%

Alzira scores more

29%

Castellonense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Castellonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff