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Castellonense vs Acero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Castellonense
Castellonense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Acero
Acero
11/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 9Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Castellonense48%
×Draw28%
Acero24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellonense
1.38
Acero
0.89

Castellonense creates 55% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 77 away

creates per match

Castellonense
1.47
Acero
0.75

allows per match

Castellonense
1.02
Acero
1.29

finishing

Castellonense+0.00on par
Acero+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellonense ↓

Acero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Castellonense or draw
76%
Castellonense or Acero
72%
Draw or Acero
52%

Winning margin

Castellonense wins by 2+
23%
Acero wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Castellonense 1+ goals
75%
Castellonense 2+ goals
40%
Castellonense 3+ goals
16%
Acero 1+ goals
59%
Acero 2+ goals
22%
Acero 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Castellonense (draw refunded)
67%
Acero (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellonense at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

Acero away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.29 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellonense attack 1.47 + Acero defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Acero attack 0.75 + Castellonense defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Castellonense scores more
48%
level
28%
Acero scores more
24%

Castellonense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Castellonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Castellonense 1–1 Acero

Castellonense and Acero drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet in Castelló.