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Castellón vs Sanluqueño — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Castellón
Castellón
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sanluqueño
Sanluqueño
5/25/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 38Nou Estadi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Castellón54%
×Draw26%
Sanluqueño20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellón
1.55
Sanluqueño
0.84

Castellón creates 85% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

creates per match

Castellón
1.65
Sanluqueño
0.80

allows per match

Castellón
0.88
Sanluqueño
1.45

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par
Sanluqueño+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Sanluqueño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Castellón or draw
80%
Castellón or Sanluqueño
74%
Draw or Sanluqueño
46%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+
28%
Sanluqueño wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals
79%
Castellón 2+ goals
46%
Castellón 3+ goals
20%
Sanluqueño 1+ goals
57%
Sanluqueño 2+ goals
21%
Sanluqueño 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)
73%
Sanluqueño (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Sanluqueño away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.65 + Sanluqueño defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sanluqueño attack 0.80 + Castellón defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Castellón scores more
54%
level
26%
Sanluqueño scores more
20%

Castellón at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Castellón 0–1 Sanluqueño

Sanluqueño beat Castellón 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Castalia in Castellón de la Plana.