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Castellón vs San Fernando CD — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Castellón
Castellón
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
3/3/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Nou Estadi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Castellón52%
×Draw25%
San Fernando CD23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellón
1.57
San Fernando CD
0.96

Castellón creates 64% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Castellón
1.65
San Fernando CD
1.03

allows per match

Castellón
0.88
San Fernando CD
1.50

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par
San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

San Fernando CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Castellón or draw
77%
Castellón or San Fernando CD
75%
Draw or San Fernando CD
48%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+
27%
San Fernando CD wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals
79%
Castellón 2+ goals
46%
Castellón 3+ goals
21%
San Fernando CD 1+ goals
62%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
25%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)
69%
San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.65 + San Fernando CD defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

San Fernando CD attack 1.03 + Castellón defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Castellón scores more
52%
level
25%
San Fernando CD scores more
23%

Castellón at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Castellón 1–0 San Fernando CD

Castellón beat San Fernando CD 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Castalia in Castellón de la Plana.