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Castellón vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Castellón
Castellón
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Unión
Real Unión
5/20/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Nou Estadi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Castellón48%
×Draw27%
Real Unión25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellón
1.40
Real Unión
0.92

Castellón creates 52% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 46 away

creates per match

Castellón
1.65
Real Unión
0.96

allows per match

Castellón
0.88
Real Unión
1.15

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Castellón or draw
75%
Castellón or Real Unión
73%
Draw or Real Unión
52%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+
23%
Real Unión wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals
75%
Castellón 2+ goals
41%
Castellón 3+ goals
17%
Real Unión 1+ goals
60%
Real Unión 2+ goals
23%
Real Unión 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)
66%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.65 + Real Unión defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.40

Real Unión attack 0.96 + Castellón defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Castellón scores more
48%
level
27%
Real Unión scores more
25%

Castellón at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castellón vs Real Unión

Castellón and Real Unión drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Castalia in Castellón de la Plana.