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Castellón vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Castellón
Castellón
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
10/7/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Nou Estadi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Castellón49%
×Draw27%
Real Madrid II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellón
1.46
Real Madrid II
0.93

Castellón creates 57% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Castellón
1.65
Real Madrid II
0.98

allows per match

Castellón
0.88
Real Madrid II
1.28

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Castellón or draw
76%
Castellón or Real Madrid II
73%
Draw or Real Madrid II
51%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+
25%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals
77%
Castellón 2+ goals
43%
Castellón 3+ goals
18%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
61%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
24%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)
67%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.65 + Real Madrid II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

Real Madrid II attack 0.98 + Castellón defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Castellón scores more
49%
level
27%
Real Madrid II scores more
24%

Castellón at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castellón vs Real Madrid II

Castellón beat Real Madrid II 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Castalia in Castellón de la Plana.