Castellón 1–0 Oviedo: Result & Stats

Castellón

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oviedo

4/3/2021

Segunda División · Round 33Nou Estadi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Castellón44%

×Draw27%

Oviedo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellónExpected goals in this matchOviedo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.05

Castellón

1.36

Oviedo

1.05

Castellón creates 30% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 151 away

1.56

creates per match

0.95

1.16

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Castellón

1.56

Oviedo

0.95

allows per match

Castellón

1.16

Oviedo

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par

Oviedo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Oviedo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Castellón or draw

71%

Castellón or Oviedo

73%

Draw or Oviedo

56%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+

21%

Oviedo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals

74%

Castellón 2+ goals

39%

Castellón 3+ goals

16%

Oviedo 1+ goals

65%

Oviedo 2+ goals

28%

Oviedo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)

60%

Oviedo (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Oviedo away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.17 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.56 + Oviedo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.36

Oviedo attack 0.95 + Castellón defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Castellón scores more

44%

level

27%

Oviedo scores more

29%

Castellón at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff