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Castellón vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Castellón
Castellón
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Melilla
Melilla
4/28/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Nou Estadi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Castellón63%
×Draw23%
Melilla14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellón
1.69
Melilla
0.63

Castellón creates 168% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Castellón
1.65
Melilla
0.37

allows per match

Castellón
0.88
Melilla
1.74

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Castellón or draw
86%
Castellón or Melilla
77%
Draw or Melilla
37%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+
36%
Melilla wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals
82%
Castellón 2+ goals
50%
Castellón 3+ goals
24%
Melilla 1+ goals
47%
Melilla 2+ goals
13%
Melilla 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)
82%
Melilla (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Melilla away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.65 + Melilla defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.69

Melilla attack 0.37 + Castellón defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Castellón scores more
63%
level
23%
Melilla scores more
14%

Castellón at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castellón vs Melilla

Castellón beat Melilla 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Castalia in Castellón de la Plana.