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Castellón vs Mallorca — Segunda División 2018

Castellón
Castellón
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mallorca
Mallorca
Juanto 24'
4/17/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 35Nou Estadi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Castellón41%
×Draw28%
Mallorca31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellón
1.24
Mallorca
1.04

Castellón creates 19% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 45 away

creates per match

Castellón
1.56
Mallorca
0.93

allows per match

Castellón
1.16
Mallorca
0.91

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par
Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Mallorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Castellón or draw
69%
Castellón or Mallorca
72%
Draw or Mallorca
59%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+
18%
Mallorca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals
71%
Castellón 2+ goals
35%
Castellón 3+ goals
13%
Mallorca 1+ goals
65%
Mallorca 2+ goals
28%
Mallorca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)
57%
Mallorca (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.56 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.24

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Castellón defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Castellón scores more
41%
level
28%
Mallorca scores more
31%

Castellón at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
Salva SevillaMallorcaMallorca · M
8.5

Match Events

24'
Juanto↳ Jamelli
26'
Arturo Molina Tornero
33'
Adrián Lapeña
42'
Martin Valjent
56'
Fran Gámez← Joan Sastre
57'
Cardona← Víctor Mollejo
57'
B. Cufré← Brian Oliván
70'
Febas← Ruiz de Galarreta
70'
Jordi Mboula← Murilo
71'
Salva Sevilla
78'
Brian Cufre
79'
Luís Gustavo← Arturo Molina
85'
David Cubillas← César Díaz
85'
Joseba Muguruza← Juanto
86'
Gus Ledes
90'
Victor Garcia Marin
90'
Raillo
90+2'
Carles Salvador← Jamelli
90+2'
Iago Indias← Jorge Fernández

Possession

31%Castellón

Shots

9Castellón

Pass accuracy

43%Castellón

Statistics

CastellónMallorca
Overview
31%Possession69%
9Total Shots18
2Corners9
22Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots18
3On Target6
2Off Target6
4Blocked6
4Inside Box8
5Outside Box10
Passing
31%Possession69%
230Total Passes473
143Accurate Passes383
62%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
22Fouls13
4Yellow Cards4
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Castellón vs Mallorca

Castellón beat Mallorca 1-0 in Segunda División on April 17, 2021.

Goals: Juanto (24').

Mallorca controlled possession (69%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Castalia in Castellón de la Plana.