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Castellón vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Castellón
Castellón
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
1/23/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Nou Estadi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Castellón53%
×Draw24%
Linares Deportivo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellón
1.73
Linares Deportivo
1.06

Castellón creates 63% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Castellón
1.65
Linares Deportivo
1.24

allows per match

Castellón
0.88
Linares Deportivo
1.82

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Castellón or draw
77%
Castellón or Linares Deportivo
76%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
47%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+
29%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals
82%
Castellón 2+ goals
52%
Castellón 3+ goals
25%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
65%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
29%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)
70%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.65 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + Castellón defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Castellón scores more
53%
level
24%
Linares Deportivo scores more
23%

Castellón at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Castellón 1 – 1 Linares Deportivo

Castellón and Linares Deportivo drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Castalia in Castellón de la Plana.