Castellón 2–0 Leganes: Result & Stats

Castellón

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Leganes

I. Zlatanović 90+2'

Ignasi Miquel 31' (OG)

10/4/2020

Segunda División · Round 4Nou Estadi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Castellón43%

×Draw27%

Leganes30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellónExpected goals in this matchLeganes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.06

Castellón

1.33

Leganes

1.06

Castellón creates 25% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 106 away

1.56

creates per match

0.97

1.16

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Castellón

1.56

Leganes

0.97

allows per match

Castellón

1.16

Leganes

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par

Leganes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Leganes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Castellón or draw

70%

Castellón or Leganes

73%

Draw or Leganes

57%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+

20%

Leganes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals

74%

Castellón 2+ goals

38%

Castellón 3+ goals

15%

Leganes 1+ goals

65%

Leganes 2+ goals

29%

Leganes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)

59%

Leganes (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Leganes away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.56 + Leganes defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Leganes attack 0.97 + Castellón defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Castellón scores more

43%

level

27%

Leganes scores more

30%

Castellón at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Óscar Whalley

Castellón · G

8.5

Match Events

31'

Ignasi MiquelOwn goal

37'

Jordi Sánchez

46'

Javier Avilés← Eraso

62'

Luís Gustavo← Jamelli

67'

Joseba Muguruza

67'

Sergi Palencia← Sabin Merino

67'

M. Santos← Rodri Tarín

77'

Álvaro Fidalgo← Jorge Fernández

77'

I. Zlatanović← Jordi Sánchez

78'

Rubén Pardo← G. Shibasaki

82'

Juan Muñoz← José Arnáiz

90'

Borja Bastón

90+2'

I. Zlatanović↳ Álvaro Fidalgo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CastellónLeganes

Overview

41%Possession59%

8Total Shots15

5Corners10

17Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots15

3On Target6

3Off Target5

2Blocked4

6Inside Box8

2Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

307Total Passes452

241Accurate Passes379

79%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2