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Castellón vs Granada II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Castellón
Castellón
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Granada II
Granada II
4/14/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Nou Estadi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Castellón60%
×Draw24%
Granada II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellón
1.72
Granada II
0.76

Castellón creates 126% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Castellón
1.65
Granada II
0.63

allows per match

Castellón
0.88
Granada II
1.79

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par
Granada II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Granada II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Castellón or draw
84%
Castellón or Granada II
76%
Draw or Granada II
40%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+
34%
Granada II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals
82%
Castellón 2+ goals
51%
Castellón 3+ goals
25%
Granada II 1+ goals
53%
Granada II 2+ goals
18%
Granada II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)
79%
Granada II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Granada II away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.65 + Granada II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.72

Granada II attack 0.63 + Castellón defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Castellón scores more
60%
level
24%
Granada II scores more
16%

Castellón at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Castellón 3–0 Granada II

Castellón beat Granada II 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Castalia in Castellón de la Plana.