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Castellón vs Gimnastic — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Castellón
Castellón
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnastic
Gimnastic
I. Suero 87'
M. Pochettino 68'
P. Fernandez 48'
8/9/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Castellón31%
×Draw29%
Gimnastic40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellón
1.00
Gimnastic
1.17

Gimnastic creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Castellón
1.33
Gimnastic
1.00

allows per match

Castellón
1.33
Gimnastic
0.67

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par
Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Gimnastic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Castellón or draw
60%
Castellón or Gimnastic
71%
Draw or Gimnastic
69%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+
12%
Gimnastic wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals
63%
Castellón 2+ goals
26%
Castellón 3+ goals
8%
Gimnastic 1+ goals
69%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
33%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)
44%
Gimnastic (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.33 + Gimnastic defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Gimnastic attack 1.00 + Castellón defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Castellón scores more
31%
level
29%
Gimnastic scores more
40%

Gimnastic at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
P. Fernandez
68'
M. Pochettino
87'
I. Suero

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Castellón 1–2 Gimnastic

Gimnastic beat Castellón 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 9, 2023.

Goals: P. Fernandez (48'), M. Pochettino (68'), I. Suero (87').