Castellón 1–0 Cornellà: Result & Stats

Castellón

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cornellà

Fabrício 6'

1/29/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Nou Estadi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Castellón56%

×Draw24%

Cornellà20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellónExpected goals in this matchCornellà

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.86

Castellón

1.65

Cornellà

0.86

Castellón creates 92% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.65

creates per match

0.84

0.88

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Castellón

1.65

Cornellà

0.84

allows per match

Castellón

0.88

Cornellà

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par

Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Cornellà →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Castellón or draw

80%

Castellón or Cornellà

76%

Draw or Cornellà

44%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+

30%

Cornellà wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals

81%

Castellón 2+ goals

49%

Castellón 3+ goals

23%

Cornellà 1+ goals

58%

Cornellà 2+ goals

21%

Cornellà 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)

74%

Cornellà (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.65 + Cornellà defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.65

Cornellà attack 0.84 + Castellón defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Castellón scores more

56%

level

24%

Cornellà scores more

20%

Castellón at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Fabrício

23'

J. Anton

32'

57'

Álex López← Mamor Niang

57'

Alfred Planas← Kike López

64'

E. Falcon

64'

G. Kochorashvili← Pablo Hernández

72'

Raúl Tavares← Xesc Fullana

72'

Rubén Enri← Nahuel Arroyo

78'

Óscar Gil← J. de León

80'

A. Hernandez

83'

Gil Muntadas← Ramón Folch

89'

90+1'

B. Granero

90+2'

Carles Salvador← Josep Calavera

Castellón

Cornellà

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Albert Rudé

64'▲G. Kochorashvili←▼Pablo Hernández

78'▲Óscar Gil←▼J. de León

90+2'▲Carles Salvador←▼Josep Calavera

Castellón substitutes

KochorashviliGilSalvadorRomeroSarrCubillasFernándezDiori

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

57'▲Álex López←▼Mamor Niang

57'▲Alfred Planas←▼Kike López

72'▲Raúl Tavares←▼Xesc Fullana

72'▲Rubén Enri←▼Nahuel Arroyo

83'▲Gil Muntadas←▼Ramón Folch

Cornellà substitutes

LópezPlanasTavaresEnriMuntadasBlancoCanales