Castellón 1–2 Calahorra: Result & Stats

Castellón

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Calahorra

Pablo Hernández 27'

Marcos Baselga 87', 31' (pen)

4/8/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Nou Estadi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Castellón49%

×Draw28%

Calahorra23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellónExpected goals in this matchCalahorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.83

Castellón

1.36

Calahorra

0.83

Castellón creates 64% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 46 away

1.65

creates per match

0.78

0.88

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Castellón

1.65

Calahorra

0.78

allows per match

Castellón

0.88

Calahorra

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par

Calahorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Calahorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Castellón or draw

77%

Castellón or Calahorra

72%

Draw or Calahorra

51%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+

24%

Calahorra wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals

74%

Castellón 2+ goals

39%

Castellón 3+ goals

16%

Calahorra 1+ goals

56%

Calahorra 2+ goals

20%

Calahorra 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)

68%

Calahorra (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Calahorra away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.65 + Calahorra defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.36

Calahorra attack 0.78 + Castellón defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Castellón scores more

49%

level

28%

Calahorra scores more

23%

Castellón at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

J. Rojas

24'

J. De Leon

27'

Pablo Hernández

28'

R. Baas

31'

Marcos BaselgaPenalty

32'

P. Hernandez

46'

G. Kochorashvili← Pablo Hernández

46'

K. Koné← Raúl Sánchez

47'

A. Vidorreta

54'

Fuentes← David Cubillas

61'

Álex Arias← Ángel López

68'

Aritz Pascual← Davo Fernández

68'

Pablo Sáenz← Pablo Santana

69'

Fabrício← J. de León

69'

Israel Suero← Josep Calavera

74'

S. Gil

78'

I. Zubiri

79'

B. Granero

79'

Pedro Pata← Álex Ibarrondo

79'

Sergio Moriones← Sergio Gil

87'

Marcos Baselga

Castellón

Calahorra

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Albert Rudé

46'▲G. Kochorashvili←▼Pablo Hernández

46'▲K. Koné←▼Raúl Sánchez

54'▲Fuentes←▼David Cubillas

69'▲Fabrício←▼J. de León

69'▲Israel Suero←▼Josep Calavera

Castellón substitutes

KochorashviliKonéFuentesFabrícioSueroSarrSalvadorMiguelGarcíaDiori

Manager: Carlos Pouso

61'▲Álex Arias←▼Ángel López

68'▲Aritz Pascual←▼Davo Fernández

68'▲Pablo Sáenz←▼Pablo Santana

79'▲Pedro Pata←▼Álex Ibarrondo

79'▲Sergio Moriones←▼Sergio Gil

Calahorra substitutes

AriasPascualSáenzPataMorionesMartínez

Match Recap: Castellón vs Calahorra

Calahorra beat Castellón 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 8, 2023.

Goals: Pablo Hernández (27'), Marcos Baselga (31' pen, 87').

The match was played at Nou Estadi Castalia in Castellón de la Plana.

Castellón vs Calahorra — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Castellón vs Calahorra