Castellón 4–1 Almeria: Result & Stats

Castellón

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Almeria

Israel Suero 82', 71'

O. Camara 66'

Sergio Moyita 30'

Nico Melamed 18'

4/18/2025

Segunda División · Round 36Estadio SkyFi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Castellón41%

×Draw26%

Almeria33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellónExpected goals in this matchAlmeria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.23

Castellón

1.41

Almeria

1.23

Castellón creates 15% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 131 away

1.56

creates per match

1.29

1.16

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Castellón

1.56

Almeria

1.29

allows per match

Castellón

1.16

Almeria

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par

Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Almeria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Castellón or draw

67%

Castellón or Almeria

74%

Draw or Almeria

59%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+

19%

Almeria wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals

76%

Castellón 2+ goals

41%

Castellón 3+ goals

17%

Almeria 1+ goals

71%

Almeria 2+ goals

35%

Almeria 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)

56%

Almeria (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.26 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.56 + Almeria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.41

Almeria attack 1.29 + Castellón defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Castellón scores more

41%

level

26%

Almeria scores more

33%

Castellón at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

D. Chirino

Castellón · D

8.7

Match Events

7'

Nicolás Melamed

8'

Léo Baptistão

18'

Nico Melamed↳ Gonzalo Melero

30'

Sergio Moyita↳ D. Chirino

45'

Dion Lopy

46'

A. Mabil← Raúl Sánchez

51'

Álex Calatrava

56'

Israel Suero← De Miguel

61'

Juan Escobar

66'

O. Camara↳ Cala

71'

Israel Suero↳ D. Chirino

72'

Sergio Arribas← Gonzalo Melero

72'

Gui← L. Robertone

73'

G. Zarfino← Sergio Moyita

73'

Lázaro← Nico Melamed

80'

Arnau Puigmal← Léo Baptistão

82'

Israel Suero↳ A. Mabil

84'

M. Milovanović← L. Suárez

86'

A. Lottin← J. Escobar

86'

Gonzalo Pastor← O. Camara

88'

Aleksandar Radovanović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CastellónAlmeria

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots9

3Corners3

11Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots9

5On Target3

3Off Target3

4Blocked3

10Inside Box5

2Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

397Total Passes368

309Accurate Passes278

78%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1