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Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC — Segunda División 2018

Castellón
Castellón
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
9/14/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 5Estadio Municipal de Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Castellón51%
×Draw24%
AD Ceuta FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellón
1.73
AD Ceuta FC
1.13

Castellón creates 53% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 21 away

creates per match

Castellón
1.56
AD Ceuta FC
1.10

allows per match

Castellón
1.16
AD Ceuta FC
1.90

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Castellón or draw
75%
Castellón or AD Ceuta FC
76%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
49%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+
28%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals
82%
Castellón 2+ goals
52%
Castellón 3+ goals
25%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
68%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
31%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)
67%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.56 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.73

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.10 + Castellón defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Castellón scores more
51%
level
24%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
25%

Castellón at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Castellón 3–3 AD Ceuta FC

Castellón and AD Ceuta FC drew 3-3 in Segunda División on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Castalia in Castellon.