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Castellón II vs Rayo Ibense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Castellón II
Castellón II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rayo Ibense
Rayo Ibense
2/4/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 19Camp de futbol Javier Marquina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Castellón II54%
×Draw25%
Rayo Ibense21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellón II
1.60
Rayo Ibense
0.90

Castellón II creates 78% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 49 away

creates per match

Castellón II
1.48
Rayo Ibense
0.63

allows per match

Castellón II
1.16
Rayo Ibense
1.73

finishing

Castellón II+0.00on par
Rayo Ibense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón II ↓

Rayo Ibense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Castellón II or draw
79%
Castellón II or Rayo Ibense
75%
Draw or Rayo Ibense
46%

Winning margin

Castellón II wins by 2+
29%
Rayo Ibense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Castellón II 1+ goals
80%
Castellón II 2+ goals
47%
Castellón II 3+ goals
22%
Rayo Ibense 1+ goals
59%
Rayo Ibense 2+ goals
23%
Rayo Ibense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Castellón II (draw refunded)
72%
Rayo Ibense (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Rayo Ibense away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón II attack 1.48 + Rayo Ibense defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.60

Rayo Ibense attack 0.63 + Castellón II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Castellón II scores more
54%
level
25%
Rayo Ibense scores more
21%

Castellón II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Castellón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castellón II vs Rayo Ibense

Castellón II beat Rayo Ibense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Camp de futbol Javier Marquina in Castellón de la Plana.