Castellón II 1–0 Olímpic Xàtiva: Result & Stats

Castellón II

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Olímpic Xàtiva

4/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 37Nou Estadi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Castellón II49%

×Draw27%

Olímpic Xàtiva25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Castellón IIExpected goals in this matchOlímpic Xàtiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.94

Castellón II

1.44

Olímpic Xàtiva

0.94

Castellón II creates 53% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 44 away

1.48

creates per match

0.73

1.16

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Castellón II

1.48

Olímpic Xàtiva

0.73

allows per match

Castellón II

1.16

Olímpic Xàtiva

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellón II+0.00on par

Olímpic Xàtiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón II ↓

Olímpic Xàtiva →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Castellón II or draw

75%

Castellón II or Olímpic Xàtiva

73%

Draw or Olímpic Xàtiva

51%

Winning margin

Castellón II wins by 2+

24%

Olímpic Xàtiva wins by 2+

Team goals

Castellón II 1+ goals

76%

Castellón II 2+ goals

42%

Castellón II 3+ goals

18%

Olímpic Xàtiva 1+ goals

61%

Olímpic Xàtiva 2+ goals

24%

Olímpic Xàtiva 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Castellón II (draw refunded)

66%

Olímpic Xàtiva (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castellón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Olímpic Xàtiva away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castellón II attack 1.48 + Olímpic Xàtiva defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Olímpic Xàtiva attack 0.73 + Castellón II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Castellón II scores more

49%

level

27%

Olímpic Xàtiva scores more

25%

Castellón II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Castellón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castellón II vs Olímpic Xàtiva

Castellón II beat Olímpic Xàtiva 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Castalia in Castellón de la Plana.

Castellón II vs Olímpic Xàtiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Castellón II vs Olímpic Xàtiva