Castellón II 1–3 Levante II: Result & Stats

Castellón II

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Levante II

12/17/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 14Camp de futbol Javier Marquina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Castellón II39%

×Draw28%

Levante II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Castellón IIExpected goals in this matchLevante II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.14

Castellón II

1.25

Levante II

1.14

Castellón II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 68 away

1.48

creates per match

1.12

1.16

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Castellón II

1.48

Levante II

1.12

allows per match

Castellón II

1.16

Levante II

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellón II+0.00on par

Levante II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón II ↓

Levante II →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Castellón II or draw

67%

Castellón II or Levante II

72%

Draw or Levante II

61%

Winning margin

Castellón II wins by 2+

17%

Levante II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Castellón II 1+ goals

71%

Castellón II 2+ goals

36%

Castellón II 3+ goals

13%

Levante II 1+ goals

68%

Levante II 2+ goals

32%

Levante II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Castellón II (draw refunded)

54%

Levante II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castellón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Levante II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castellón II attack 1.48 + Levante II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.25

Levante II attack 1.12 + Castellón II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Castellón II scores more

39%

level

28%

Levante II scores more

33%

Castellón II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Castellón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castellón II vs Levante II

Levante II beat Castellón II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Camp de futbol Javier Marquina in Castellón de la Plana.

Castellón II vs Levante II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Castellón II vs Levante II