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Castellón II vs Elche II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Castellón II
Castellón II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Elche II
Elche II
1/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 22Camp de futbol Javier Marquina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Castellón II37%
×Draw27%
Elche II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellón II
1.25
Elche II
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 77 away

creates per match

Castellón II
1.48
Elche II
1.25

allows per match

Castellón II
1.16
Elche II
1.01

finishing

Castellón II+0.00on par
Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón II ↓

Elche II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Castellón II or draw
65%
Castellón II or Elche II
73%
Draw or Elche II
63%

Winning margin

Castellón II wins by 2+
16%
Elche II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Castellón II 1+ goals
71%
Castellón II 2+ goals
36%
Castellón II 3+ goals
13%
Elche II 1+ goals
70%
Elche II 2+ goals
34%
Elche II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Castellón II (draw refunded)
51%
Elche II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón II attack 1.48 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.25

Elche II attack 1.25 + Castellón II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Castellón II scores more
37%
level
27%
Elche II scores more
35%

Castellón II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Castellón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castellón II vs Elche II

Castellón II and Elche II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Camp de futbol Javier Marquina in Castelló de la Plana.