Castellón II 3–1 CF Gandía: Result & Stats

Castellón II

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

CF Gandía

3/8/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 24Camp de futbol Javier Marquina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Castellón II43%

×Draw26%

CF Gandía31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Castellón IIExpected goals in this matchCF Gandía

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.15

Castellón II

1.41

CF Gandía

1.15

Castellón II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 32 away

1.48

creates per match

1.13

1.16

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Castellón II

1.48

CF Gandía

1.13

allows per match

Castellón II

1.16

CF Gandía

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellón II+0.00on par

CF Gandía+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón II ↓

CF Gandía →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Castellón II or draw

69%

Castellón II or CF Gandía

74%

Draw or CF Gandía

57%

Winning margin

Castellón II wins by 2+

20%

CF Gandía wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Castellón II 1+ goals

76%

Castellón II 2+ goals

41%

Castellón II 3+ goals

17%

CF Gandía 1+ goals

68%

CF Gandía 2+ goals

32%

CF Gandía 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Castellón II (draw refunded)

58%

CF Gandía (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castellón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

CF Gandía away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castellón II attack 1.48 + CF Gandía defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

CF Gandía attack 1.13 + Castellón II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Castellón II scores more

43%

level

26%

CF Gandía scores more

31%

Castellón II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Castellón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castellón II vs CF Gandía

Castellón II beat CF Gandía 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Camp de futbol Javier Marquina in Castellón de la Plana.

Castellón II vs CF Gandía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Castellón II vs CF Gandía