Castelldefels 0–0 Sant Andreu: Result & Stats

Castelldefels

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sant Andreu

3/8/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 27Estadio Els Canyars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Castelldefels30%

×Draw27%

Sant Andreu43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastelldefelsExpected goals in this matchSant Andreu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.35

Castelldefels

1.09

Sant Andreu

1.35

Sant Andreu creates 24% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 57 away

1.03

creates per match

1.47

1.24

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Castelldefels

1.03

Sant Andreu

1.47

allows per match

Castelldefels

1.24

Sant Andreu

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castelldefels ↓

Sant Andreu →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Castelldefels or draw

57%

Castelldefels or Sant Andreu

73%

Draw or Sant Andreu

70%

Winning margin

Castelldefels wins by 2+

12%

Sant Andreu wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Castelldefels 1+ goals

66%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

30%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

10%

Sant Andreu 1+ goals

74%

Sant Andreu 2+ goals

39%

Sant Andreu 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

41%

Sant Andreu (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castelldefels at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

Sant Andreu away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castelldefels attack 1.03 + Sant Andreu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Sant Andreu attack 1.47 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Castelldefels scores more

30%

level

27%

Sant Andreu scores more

43%

Sant Andreu at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Castelldefels 0–0 Sant Andreu

Castelldefels and Sant Andreu drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Els Canyars in Castelldefels.

Castelldefels vs Sant Andreu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Castelldefels 0–0 Sant Andreu