Castelldefels 2–0 Pobla Mafumet: Result & Stats

Castelldefels

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pobla Mafumet

Kilian Villaverde 58' (pen)

Juanito 54'

1/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 16Estadio Els Canyars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Castelldefels37%

×Draw28%

Pobla Mafumet35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastelldefelsExpected goals in this matchPobla Mafumet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.16

Castelldefels

1.19

Pobla Mafumet

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 76 away

1.03

creates per match

1.07

1.24

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Castelldefels

1.03

Pobla Mafumet

1.07

allows per match

Castelldefels

1.24

Pobla Mafumet

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castelldefels ↓

Pobla Mafumet →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Castelldefels or draw

65%

Castelldefels or Pobla Mafumet

72%

Draw or Pobla Mafumet

63%

Winning margin

Castelldefels wins by 2+

16%

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Castelldefels 1+ goals

70%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

33%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

12%

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

69%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

32%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

51%

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castelldefels at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castelldefels attack 1.03 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Castelldefels scores more

37%

level

28%

Pobla Mafumet scores more

35%

Castelldefels at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Castelldefels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Ricard Robledo← Aleix Grabulosa

54'

Juanito

58'

Kilian VillaverdePenalty

63'

Joan Torrents← L. Igbineweka

63'

Patrik Ngingi← Gerardo de la Torre

70'

Mario Gerboles← Fran Orellana

80'

Carlos Portero← Kilian Villaverde

80'

Carlos Cano← David Acedo

80'

Marcel Céspedes← José Enrique

87'

Sergi Quirós← Monne

88'

Pablo Franco← Manu González

Castelldefels

Pobla

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Villaverd

▼

Orellana

Manager: Miki Carrillo

70'▲Mario Gerboles←▼Fran Orellana

80'▲Carlos Portero←▼Kilian Villaverde

80'▲Carlos Cano←▼David Acedo

88'▲Pablo Franco←▼Manu González

Castelldefels substitutes

GerbolesPorteroCanoFranco

Manager: Adolfo Baines

46'▲Ricard Robledo←▼Aleix Grabulosa

63'▲Joan Torrents←▼L. Igbineweka

63'▲Patrik Ngingi←▼Gerardo de la Torre

80'▲Marcel Céspedes←▼José Enrique

87'▲Sergi Quirós←▼Monne

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

RobledoTorrentsNgingiCéspedesQuirós

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Castelldefels 2–0 Pobla Mafumet

Castelldefels beat Pobla Mafumet 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 14, 2024.

Goals: Juanito (54'), Kilian Villaverde (58' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Els Canyars in Castelldefels.

Castelldefels vs Pobla Mafumet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Castelldefels 2–0 Pobla Mafumet