Castelldefels 1–2 L'Escala: Result & Stats

Castelldefels

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

L'Escala

Kilian Villaverde 74'

Josu Currais 62'

Eric Pimentel 61'

11/26/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 12Estadio Els Canyars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Castelldefels43%

×Draw27%

L'Escala30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastelldefelsExpected goals in this matchL'Escala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.10

Castelldefels

1.36

L'Escala

1.10

Castelldefels creates 24% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 51 away

1.03

creates per match

0.96

1.24

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Castelldefels

1.03

L'Escala

0.96

allows per match

Castelldefels

1.24

L'Escala

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castelldefels+0.00on par

L'Escala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castelldefels ↓

L'Escala →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Castelldefels or draw

70%

Castelldefels or L'Escala

73%

Draw or L'Escala

57%

Winning margin

Castelldefels wins by 2+

20%

L'Escala wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Castelldefels 1+ goals

74%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

39%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

16%

L'Escala 1+ goals

67%

L'Escala 2+ goals

30%

L'Escala 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

59%

L'Escala (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castelldefels at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

L'Escala away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castelldefels attack 1.03 + L'Escala defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.36

L'Escala attack 0.96 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Castelldefels scores more

43%

level

27%

L'Escala scores more

30%

Castelldefels at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Castelldefels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Genís Balaguer← Pol Bastidas

61'

Eric Pimentel

62'

Josu Currais

64'

Bobi← Carlos Portero

64'

Rubén Gimenez← David Acedo

64'

Carlos Cano← Pablo Franco

67'

Maha← I. Nemoto

74'

Kilian Villaverde

79'

Roger Fortuny← Xumetra

79'

Burama Danjo← Iván Amoedo

83'

Xavier Finot← Juanito

83'

Álex Alba← Blasco

86'

Pablo Calvete← Eric Pimentel

Castelldefels

L'Escala

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Miki Carrillo

64'▲Bobi←▼Carlos Portero

64'▲Rubén Gimenez←▼David Acedo

64'▲Carlos Cano←▼Pablo Franco

83'▲Xavier Finot←▼Juanito

83'▲Álex Alba←▼Blasco

Castelldefels substitutes

BobiGimenezCanoFinotAlba

Manager: Arnau Sala

46'▲Genís Balaguer←▼Pol Bastidas

67'▲Maha←▼I. Nemoto

79'▲Roger Fortuny←▼Xumetra

79'▲Burama Danjo←▼Iván Amoedo

86'▲Pablo Calvete←▼Eric Pimentel

L'Escala substitutes

BalaguerMahaFortunyDanjoCalvete

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Castelldefels 1–2 L'Escala

L'Escala beat Castelldefels 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 26, 2023.

Goals: Eric Pimentel (61'), Josu Currais (62'), Kilian Villaverde (74').

The match was played at Estadio Els Canyars in Castelldefels.

Castelldefels vs L'Escala — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Castelldefels 1–2 L'Escala