Castanhal 4–0 Paysandu: Result & Stats

Castanhal

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Paysandu

3/6/2022

League #627 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Maximino Porpino Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Castanhal64%

×Draw23%

Paysandu13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastanhalExpected goals in this matchPaysandu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.63

Castanhal

1.75

Paysandu

0.63

Castanhal creates 178% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.75

creates per match

0.50

0.75

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Castanhal

1.75

Paysandu

0.50

allows per match

Castanhal

0.75

Paysandu

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castanhal+0.00on par

Paysandu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castanhal ↓

Paysandu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Castanhal or draw

87%

Castanhal or Paysandu

77%

Draw or Paysandu

36%

Winning margin

Castanhal wins by 2+

37%

Paysandu wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Castanhal 1+ goals

83%

Castanhal 2+ goals

52%

Castanhal 3+ goals

25%

Paysandu 1+ goals

47%

Paysandu 2+ goals

13%

Paysandu 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Castanhal (draw refunded)

83%

Paysandu (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castanhal at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Paysandu away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castanhal attack 1.75 + Paysandu defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

Paysandu attack 0.50 + Castanhal defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Castanhal scores more

64%

level

23%

Paysandu scores more

13%

Castanhal at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Castanhal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff