Cassino 0–0 Ischia: Result & Stats

Cassino

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ischia

3/3/2024

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 25Stadio Comunale Gino Salvetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cassino40%

×Draw29%

Ischia30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CassinoExpected goals in this matchIschia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.99

Cassino

1.19

Ischia

0.99

Cassino creates 20% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 34 away

1.15

creates per match

1.06

0.92

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Cassino

1.15

Ischia

1.06

allows per match

Cassino

0.92

Ischia

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cassino+0.00on par

Ischia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cassino ↓

Ischia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cassino or draw

70%

Cassino or Ischia

71%

Draw or Ischia

60%

Winning margin

Cassino wins by 2+

17%

Ischia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cassino 1+ goals

70%

Cassino 2+ goals

33%

Cassino 3+ goals

12%

Ischia 1+ goals

63%

Ischia 2+ goals

26%

Ischia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cassino (draw refunded)

57%

Ischia (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cassino at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.92 · 98 matches

Ischia away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cassino attack 1.15 + Ischia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ischia attack 1.06 + Cassino defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cassino scores more

40%

level

29%

Ischia scores more

30%

Cassino at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cassino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff