Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cassino vs Budoni — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Cassino
Cassino
FT
1 – 0
Budoni
Budoni
11/10/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 11Stadio Comunale Gino Salvetti (Cassino)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Cassino45%
×Draw29%
Budoni26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cassino
1.25
Budoni
0.88

Cassino creates 42% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 47 away

creates per match

Cassino
1.15
Budoni
0.83

allows per match

Cassino
0.92
Budoni
1.34

finishing

Cassino+0.00on par
Budoni+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cassino ↓

Budoni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cassino or draw
74%
Cassino or Budoni
71%
Draw or Budoni
55%

Winning margin

Cassino wins by 2+
20%
Budoni wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cassino 1+ goals
71%
Cassino 2+ goals
36%
Cassino 3+ goals
13%
Budoni 1+ goals
59%
Budoni 2+ goals
22%
Budoni 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cassino (draw refunded)
63%
Budoni (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cassino at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.92 · 98 matches

Budoni away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cassino attack 1.15 + Budoni defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Budoni attack 0.83 + Cassino defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cassino scores more
45%
level
29%
Budoni scores more
26%

Cassino at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cassino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Cassino 1–0 Budoni

Cassino beat Budoni 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Gino Salvetti (Cassino).