Cassino 1–1 Boreale: Result & Stats

Cassino

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Boreale

1/7/2024

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 18Stadio Comunale Gino Salvetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cassino49%

×Draw29%

Boreale22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CassinoExpected goals in this matchBoreale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.76

Cassino

1.28

Boreale

0.76

Cassino creates 68% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 17 away

1.15

creates per match

0.59

0.92

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Cassino

1.15

Boreale

0.59

allows per match

Cassino

0.92

Boreale

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cassino+0.00on par

Boreale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cassino ↓

Boreale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Cassino or draw

78%

Cassino or Boreale

71%

Draw or Boreale

51%

Winning margin

Cassino wins by 2+

23%

Boreale wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cassino 1+ goals

72%

Cassino 2+ goals

37%

Cassino 3+ goals

14%

Boreale 1+ goals

53%

Boreale 2+ goals

18%

Boreale 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cassino (draw refunded)

69%

Boreale (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cassino at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.92 · 98 matches

Boreale away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cassino attack 1.15 + Boreale defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Boreale attack 0.59 + Cassino defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cassino scores more

49%

level

29%

Boreale scores more

22%

Cassino at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cassino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff