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Cassino vs Atletico Uri — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Cassino
Cassino
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
11/1/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 9Stadio Comunale Gino Salvetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Cassino49%
×Draw27%
Atletico Uri24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cassino
1.43
Atletico Uri
0.90

Cassino creates 59% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 68 away

creates per match

Cassino
1.15
Atletico Uri
0.87

allows per match

Cassino
0.92
Atletico Uri
1.71

finishing

Cassino+0.00on par
Atletico Uri+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cassino ↓

Atletico Uri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cassino or draw
76%
Cassino or Atletico Uri
73%
Draw or Atletico Uri
51%

Winning margin

Cassino wins by 2+
24%
Atletico Uri wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cassino 1+ goals
76%
Cassino 2+ goals
42%
Cassino 3+ goals
17%
Atletico Uri 1+ goals
59%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
23%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cassino (draw refunded)
68%
Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cassino at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.92 · 98 matches

Atletico Uri away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cassino attack 1.15 + Atletico Uri defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.43

Atletico Uri attack 0.87 + Cassino defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cassino scores more
49%
level
27%
Atletico Uri scores more
24%

Cassino at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cassino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Cassino 0–1 Atletico Uri

Atletico Uri beat Cassino 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Gino Salvetti in Cassino.