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Casric Stars vs Orbit College — Premier Soccer League 2018

Casric Stars
Casric Stars
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Orbit College
Orbit College
6/21/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Finals - 7Solomon Mahlangu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Casric Stars30%
×Draw33%
Orbit College38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casric Stars
0.83
Orbit College
0.98

Orbit College creates 18% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

creates per match

Casric Stars
0.25
Orbit College
0.71

allows per match

Casric Stars
1.25
Orbit College
1.41

finishing

Casric Stars+0.00on par
Orbit College+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casric Stars ↓

Orbit College →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Casric Stars or draw
62%
Casric Stars or Orbit College
67%
Draw or Orbit College
70%

Winning margin

Casric Stars wins by 2+
10%
Orbit College wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Casric Stars 1+ goals
56%
Casric Stars 2+ goals
20%
Casric Stars 3+ goals
5%
Orbit College 1+ goals
62%
Orbit College 2+ goals
26%
Orbit College 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Casric Stars (draw refunded)
44%
Orbit College (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casric Stars at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Orbit College away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casric Stars attack 0.25 + Orbit College defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.83

Orbit College attack 0.71 + Casric Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Casric Stars scores more
30%
level
33%
Orbit College scores more
38%

Orbit College at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Orbit College will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Casric Stars 0–1 Orbit College

Orbit College beat Casric Stars 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Solomon Mahlangu Stadium in KwaMhlanga.