Casric Stars 0–2 Maritzburg Utd: Result & Stats

Casric Stars

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Maritzburg Utd

6/10/2023

Premier Soccer League · Playoffs - 1Solomon Mahlangu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Casric Stars26%

×Draw34%

Maritzburg Utd40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Casric StarsExpected goals in this matchMaritzburg Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.70

0.95

Casric Stars

0.70

Maritzburg Utd

0.95

Maritzburg Utd creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 77 away

0.25

creates per match

0.64

1.25

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Casric Stars

0.25

Maritzburg Utd

0.64

allows per match

Casric Stars

1.25

Maritzburg Utd

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Casric Stars+0.00on par

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casric Stars ↓

Maritzburg Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–118%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Casric Stars or draw

60%

Casric Stars or Maritzburg Utd

66%

Draw or Maritzburg Utd

74%

Winning margin

Casric Stars wins by 2+

7%

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Casric Stars 1+ goals

50%

Casric Stars 2+ goals

16%

Casric Stars 3+ goals

3%

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals

61%

Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals

25%

Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Casric Stars (draw refunded)

39%

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casric Stars at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Maritzburg Utd away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casric Stars attack 0.25 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.70

Maritzburg Utd attack 0.64 + Casric Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Casric Stars scores more

26%

level

34%

Maritzburg Utd scores more

40%

Maritzburg Utd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Maritzburg Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff