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Casric Stars vs Cape Town City — Premier Soccer League 2018

Casric Stars
Casric Stars
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cape Town City
Cape Town City
6/18/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Finals - 5Solomon Mahlangu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Casric Stars24%
×Draw32%
Cape Town City44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casric Stars
0.72
Cape Town City
1.10

Cape Town City creates 53% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 109 away

creates per match

Casric Stars
0.25
Cape Town City
0.95

allows per match

Casric Stars
1.25
Cape Town City
1.19

finishing

Casric Stars+0.00on par
Cape Town City+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casric Stars ↓

Cape Town City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–118%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Casric Stars or draw
56%
Casric Stars or Cape Town City
68%
Draw or Cape Town City
76%

Winning margin

Casric Stars wins by 2+
7%
Cape Town City wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Casric Stars 1+ goals
51%
Casric Stars 2+ goals
16%
Casric Stars 3+ goals
4%
Cape Town City 1+ goals
67%
Cape Town City 2+ goals
30%
Cape Town City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Casric Stars (draw refunded)
35%
Cape Town City (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casric Stars at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Cape Town City away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casric Stars attack 0.25 + Cape Town City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.72

Cape Town City attack 0.95 + Casric Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Casric Stars scores more
24%
level
32%
Cape Town City scores more
44%

Cape Town City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cape Town City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Casric Stars vs Cape Town City

Casric Stars and Cape Town City drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on June 18, 2025.

The match was played at Solomon Mahlangu Stadium in KwaMhlanga.