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Caspe vs Utrillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Caspe
Caspe
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Utrillas
Utrillas
12/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 15Estadio Los Rosales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Caspe49%
×Draw26%
Utrillas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caspe
1.49
Utrillas
0.96

Caspe creates 55% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 66 away

creates per match

Caspe
1.34
Utrillas
0.97

allows per match

Caspe
0.95
Utrillas
1.64

finishing

Caspe+0.00on par
Utrillas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caspe ↓

Utrillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Caspe or draw
76%
Caspe or Utrillas
74%
Draw or Utrillas
51%

Winning margin

Caspe wins by 2+
25%
Utrillas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Caspe 1+ goals
77%
Caspe 2+ goals
44%
Caspe 3+ goals
19%
Utrillas 1+ goals
62%
Utrillas 2+ goals
25%
Utrillas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Caspe (draw refunded)
67%
Utrillas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caspe at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.95 · 83 matches

Utrillas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caspe attack 1.34 + Utrillas defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.49

Utrillas attack 0.97 + Caspe defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Caspe scores more
49%
level
26%
Utrillas scores more
24%

Caspe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Caspe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caspe vs Utrillas

Utrillas beat Caspe 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on December 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Los Rosales in Caspe.