Caspe 2–1 Calamocha: Result & Stats

Caspe

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Calamocha

2/18/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 21Estadio Los Rosales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Caspe41%

×Draw29%

Calamocha30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaspeExpected goals in this matchCalamocha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.98

Caspe

1.21

Calamocha

0.98

Caspe creates 23% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 110 away

1.34

creates per match

1.01

0.95

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Caspe

1.34

Calamocha

1.01

allows per match

Caspe

0.95

Calamocha

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caspe+0.00on par

Calamocha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caspe ↓

Calamocha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Caspe or draw

70%

Caspe or Calamocha

71%

Draw or Calamocha

59%

Winning margin

Caspe wins by 2+

18%

Calamocha wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Caspe 1+ goals

70%

Caspe 2+ goals

34%

Caspe 3+ goals

12%

Calamocha 1+ goals

62%

Calamocha 2+ goals

26%

Calamocha 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Caspe (draw refunded)

58%

Calamocha (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caspe at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.95 · 83 matches

Calamocha away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caspe attack 1.34 + Calamocha defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Calamocha attack 1.01 + Caspe defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Caspe scores more

41%

level

29%

Calamocha scores more

30%

Caspe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Caspe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff