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Caspe vs Binéfar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Caspe
Caspe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Binéfar
Binéfar
2/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 25Estadio Los Rosales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Caspe40%
×Draw28%
Binéfar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caspe
1.27
Binéfar
1.11

Caspe creates 14% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 111 away

creates per match

Caspe
1.34
Binéfar
1.27

allows per match

Caspe
0.95
Binéfar
1.21

finishing

Caspe+0.00on par
Binéfar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caspe ↓

Binéfar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Caspe or draw
68%
Caspe or Binéfar
72%
Draw or Binéfar
60%

Winning margin

Caspe wins by 2+
18%
Binéfar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Caspe 1+ goals
72%
Caspe 2+ goals
36%
Caspe 3+ goals
14%
Binéfar 1+ goals
67%
Binéfar 2+ goals
30%
Binéfar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Caspe (draw refunded)
55%
Binéfar (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caspe at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.95 · 83 matches

Binéfar away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caspe attack 1.34 + Binéfar defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Binéfar attack 1.27 + Caspe defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Caspe scores more
40%
level
28%
Binéfar scores more
32%

Caspe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Caspe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caspe vs Binéfar

Binéfar beat Caspe 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Los Rosales in Caspe.